The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across most parts of the country during the June to August 2026 period, raising concerns over agriculture, water resources, and possible heatwave conditions.
In its seasonal outlook, the PMD said that climate patterns are being influenced by a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is expected to turn positive by July, while the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has already entered an El Niño phase and may strengthen further during the summer season.
Based on these conditions, the Met Office expects normal to below-normal rainfall across much of Pakistan during the monsoon months. The most significant rainfall deficits are likely in northeastern Punjab, where dry conditions could intensify agricultural stress.
The PMD indicated a high probability of below-normal rainfall across Punjab, Sindh, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and large areas of Balochistan. However, northern regions including Gilgit-Baltistan, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Kashmir may receive near-normal to slightly above-normal rainfall.
At the same time, above-normal temperatures are expected nationwide. The highest temperature increases are likely in eastern Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, and nearby northern Punjab regions, while intense heat conditions are also expected in Sindh, southeastern Balochistan, and central to northeastern Punjab.
The weather department warned that reduced rainfall could create moisture stress during the Kharif crop season, lower agricultural productivity in rain-fed areas, and increase demand for irrigation water. It also highlighted the risk of heatwaves in southern regions and possible urban flooding during short but intense rainfall events.
Authorities have been advised to stay alert for flash floods, landslides in mountainous regions, and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) due to accelerated snowmelt in northern areas. The PMD further cautioned that extreme weather conditions could also increase the spread of heat-related illnesses and vector-borne diseases such as dengue.
Also read: PMD Forecast Highlights Rain and Heat Trends for May 2026
