The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has issued a warning regarding a potentially severe monsoon season in 2026, highlighting concerns that an expected El Niño phenomenon may significantly disrupt normal rainfall patterns across Pakistan.
According to officials, the upcoming monsoon is likely to be more intense than usual, bringing heavier and more frequent spells of rain. This situation raises the possibility of extreme weather events, including flash floods and localized disasters in different parts of the country.
Technical experts, including Dr Tayyab, have pointed out a high probability of cloudbursts and extremely heavy rainfall in certain regions. He explained that some areas could receive an entire month’s worth of rainfall within just one to two days, increasing the risk of sudden flooding and urban inundation.
The forecast also indicates uneven rainfall distribution across the country. While some regions may experience above-normal precipitation, others—particularly parts of Sindh and Balochistan—are expected to receive below-average rainfall. This imbalance could create both water shortages in some areas and flood threats in others.
In addition to rainfall concerns, rising temperatures in northern regions have also been flagged as a contributing factor that may intensify extreme weather patterns. Warmer conditions in these areas could accelerate snowmelt and further increase flood risks downstream.
Authorities have also expressed particular concern about the Indus River system, which is expected to be more vulnerable to flooding this season compared to other major rivers such as the Ravi, Sutlej, and Chenab. The increased water flow, combined with heavy rainfall, could put additional pressure on existing flood management infrastructure.
In response to these risks, the NDMA has issued a comprehensive advisory to provincial governments and relevant departments. The advisory includes guidelines for emergency preparedness, improved coordination, and efficient supply management to handle potential disasters.
Officials are currently reviewing contingency plans to ensure a swift and coordinated response in case of flooding or other monsoon-related emergencies. The goal is to minimize potential damage, protect lives, and strengthen national disaster readiness ahead of what could be a challenging weather season.
Read more: NDMA Warns of Heavy Rain and Snowfall
