US Vice President JD Vance has said the conflict between the United States and Iran could enter a “much different phase” within the next few months. His comments came as he described the first stage of the US campaign as complete and said the focus had shifted toward preventing Iran from rebuilding its military and nuclear capabilities.
Speaking aboard Air Force Two on Monday, Vance said the United States was no longer conducting what he described as aggressive operations against Iran. He added that Iranian forces were still occasionally targeting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, although he said such attacks were usually unsuccessful.
Vance described the conflict as having two phases. He said the first phase focused on destroying Iran’s nuclear programme, conventional military capabilities and ability to project power. According to Vance, that phase has now ended.
He said the second phase would focus on preventing Tehran from rebuilding those capabilities while trying to maintain stability in the region. Vance did not give a fixed timeline for when the conflict would end and stressed that the future course could not be predicted.
The vice president also discussed the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy routes. He said commercial traffic through the waterway had recovered to “well over 50%” of normal levels. However, publicly tracked shipping data shows that traffic remains far below pre-conflict levels. Recent tracking recorded only four commercial vessel crossings in one 24-hour period, while some vessels may have been using routes with their tracking systems turned off.
Before the conflict, around 130 commercial vessels were reported to cross the strait each day on average. The waterway is also a major route for global energy supplies, with about one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil normally passing through it.
US Navy forces have spent months conducting operations aimed at clearing mines and supporting maritime movement through the strategic waterway. Vance said these efforts had helped restore a significant portion of normal shipping activity.
At the same time, tensions remain. Iran continues to be accused of targeting commercial vessels and US military positions in the region. Recent incidents around the Strait of Hormuz have shown that maritime security remains a major issue despite the reported increase in traffic.
Vance’s comments also echoed President Donald Trump’s recent expectation that the conflict could change significantly after the US midterm elections in November. However, Vance stressed that the president, as commander in chief, ultimately determines when US military conflicts begin and end.
Vance has also previously been involved in diplomatic efforts involving Washington and Tehran. A memorandum reached in June was intended to support a ceasefire and negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme.
The latest comments leave the future course of the conflict uncertain. Vance has described a shift away from the initial phase of major military operations toward efforts to prevent Iran from rebuilding its capabilities. Whether that develops into further military action, prolonged pressure or renewed diplomacy remains dependent on developments in the coming months.
