NDMA Warns of Early, Intense Monsoon Season with Up to 50% More Rainfall in Parts of Punjab
Islamabad – The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has warned of an early and more intense monsoon season this year, forecasting above-normal rainfall and rising temperatures across several regions of Pakistan. The alert was shared during a briefing to the Senate Standing Committee on Climate Change held at NDMA headquarters on Wednesday.
NDMA Chairman Lt Gen Inam Haider Malik informed the committee that the monsoon is expected to begin around June 26–27, three to four days earlier than usual, with rainfall exceeding average levels by up to 5% nationwide. Notably, northeastern Punjab could see an alarming 50% increase in rainfall, raising concerns about potential flooding and infrastructure stress.
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Rainfall and Temperature Forecasts
The NDMA chief shared data from 30 years of climate records, highlighting regional variations in expected rainfall:
- Punjab: Expected to receive 388mm of rainfall compared to the usual 344mm. Cities like Lahore, Gujranwala, Sialkot, and Narowal may see up to 380mm.
- Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP): Rainfall may rise from 243mm to nearly 300mm, especially in southern parts. However, northern KP and Chitral could face below-normal rainfall.
- Balochistan and Northern KP: Likely to receive less than average rainfall, coupled with higher-than-normal temperatures.
- Sindh and South Punjab: Could face temperature spikes of 4–5°C above normal, intensifying heatwave conditions.
- Azad Kashmir: Predicted to receive more than normal rainfall.
Temperature increases of 2–3°C in Punjab, 2.5°C in Sindh, and 1.5°C in KP could worsen existing heatwaves, NDMA officials warned.
Cloudbursts, Flooding, and Glacier Melt
The NDMA also issued warnings about the increased risk of cloudbursts and flash floods, particularly in glacial regions like Gilgit-Baltistan, KP, and Azad Kashmir. Lt Gen Malik cautioned that accelerated glacier melting could lead to initial flooding, followed by a water shortage due to rapid depletion of glacial reserves.
“We issued a heatwave advisory six months ago and continue to provide early warnings to help mitigate disaster risks,” said Lt Gen Malik.
Indus Waters Treaty and Riverbed Encroachments
Senator Sherry Rehman, who chaired the meeting, expressed concern over India’s unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, calling it a major threat to Pakistan’s water security. NDMA officials confirmed that a detailed impact assessment study is currently underway.
The NDMA also highlighted the need to eliminate riverbed encroachments, which significantly heighten the risk of flooding during the monsoon.
Call for National Preparedness
The session concluded with a strong call for enhanced disaster preparedness, improved forecasting systems, and greater federal-provincial coordination to address escalating climate-related risks in Pakistan.
