Asteroid 2024 YR4, once feared to pose the highest known impact risk to Earth, is again under watch as new data suggests a slightly increased chance of it striking the moon on December 22, 2032. NASA now estimates a 4.3% probability of lunar impact, up from an earlier 3.8%.
The asteroid, first detected in December 2024, measures between 53 and 67 meters — about the size of a 10-storey building. Though previously considered a potential Earth threat, updated orbital tracking and observations by the James Webb Space Telescope have ruled out any danger to our planet.
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NASA reassured that a lunar impact, if it happens, would not disturb the moon’s orbit or pose any risk to life on Earth. Experts say the change in trajectory estimates is routine as new data refines long-term predictions.
Researchers emphasised that even in the event of a moon collision, any resulting debris would likely burn up harmlessly in Earth’s atmosphere.
