Erratic heat and rainfall patterns linked to climate change are causing a significant increase in landslides along Pakistan’s N-15 highway, a key tourism route connecting Balakot, Naran, Babusar Top, and Chilas.
A joint study by Pakistani and Chinese scientists examined 455 satellite images, climate records, and field surveys from 1990 to 2023, identifying 335 non-seismic landslides that repeatedly sent rocks, mud, and ice onto the highway, disrupting travel and endangering local communities. Researchers combined Landsat and Sentinel-2 data, Google Earth verification, and on-site inspections to confirm findings.
The study found a strong correlation between rising temperatures, heavier precipitation, and the surge in landslides, especially after 2005. Most incidents (84%) occurred between April and October, when snowmelt, soil moisture, and rainfall destabilize slopes. Risk patterns vary by terrain: heavy rains trigger slides in Balakot, moisture-related landslides occur from Naran to Babusar Top, and heat and geological factors dominate in Chilas. Slopes above 40° and elevations of 1,000–2,500 meters were most affected.
Field visits revealed local communities often avoid high-risk zones during monsoon months or relocate temporarily, but limited infrastructure makes responses reactive rather than proactive. Experts recommend low-cost bioengineering, protective barriers, improved drainage, real-time monitoring, and community awareness programs to reduce risk. Historical data shows landslides claimed 1,583 lives in Pakistan between 2004 and 2016. The study offers a framework for early warning systems, risk assessment, and resilient infrastructure planning in vulnerable mountain areas.
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