In a concerning move, India has significantly increased the inflow of water into the Chenab River, causing alarm in Pakistan and raising fears of water aggression. This escalation follows India’s recent suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), which governs the use of shared river resources between the two nations. The abrupt surge in water flow at Head Marala, from 3,100 cusecs to 26,000 cusecs in just 24 hours, has raised serious concerns about the integrity of the treaty and its potential impact on Pakistan’s water security.
Punjab Irrigation Minister Kazim Pirzada confirmed that the sudden changes in the river’s flow are “unnatural” and warned that areas with limited alternative water sources will be most affected. The move coincides with India’s controversial actions at the Salal and Baglihar hydropower projects on the Chenab River, where India began the “reservoir flushing” process, releasing sediment-laden waters downstream. This has sparked fears of flooding, followed by water shortages as the reservoirs are refilled.
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The Indus Waters Treaty permits India to use shared rivers for irrigation but prohibits diverting water flows or altering them in a way that harms Pakistan. Pakistan has repeatedly warned that any tampering with its water resources would be seen as an act of war. Information Minister Attaullah Tarar reiterated this warning in the National Assembly, emphasizing that Pakistan would take strong action in response to any such aggression.
In addition to these developments, India has advanced the construction of several hydropower projects on the Chenab River in Jammu and Kashmir, aiming to expedite the development of projects that could further disrupt the river’s flow into Pakistan. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has made it clear that India intends to utilize the river’s resources for its own benefit, further complicating the already tense situation. Experts fear that even small changes in the timing of water releases could severely impact Pakistan’s agricultural cycles, disrupting sowing calendars and reducing crop yields.
