Global wheat prices have risen recently, driven by ongoing dry weather in key producing regions such as Russia, Ukraine, and parts of the United States, as reported by the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB). The uncertainty surrounding the 2024/2025 Russian wheat crop, coupled with slower-than-anticipated planting for the upcoming season, has intensified market concerns amid persistent dry conditions.
Russia, a leading global wheat producer, has revised its wheat crop estimate for 2024 downward from an earlier range of 84-86 million tonnes (Mt) to 83.0 Mt. This adjustment, combined with robust wheat exports, has led to speculation that the Russian government may consider implementing a higher minimum export price, adding to market unease.
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While some rain is forecasted for the coming week, analysts remain cautious about the outlook for Russian wheat production. In Ukraine, initial dry weather hindered planting efforts, but recent rainfall has alleviated some challenges, allowing for progress in the planting of winter crops.
In the United States, drier-than-usual conditions in winter wheat-producing areas are raising concerns as new crop planting begins. Additionally, Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) has indicated that more rainfall is necessary to maintain yields for the 2024/2025 wheat crop. The Rosario Stock Exchange has also reduced its crop forecast by 1.0 Mt due to ongoing dryness, although this estimate remains higher than BAGE’s projection.
In Europe, adverse weather is affecting wheat planting, particularly in France, where the harvesting of late-planted 2024 maize has been sluggish, with only 6% harvested by October 7, compared to the typical 40% by early October. However, planting progress has improved recently, with a more favorable weather forecast ahead.
By October 7, winter barley planting in France reached 12%, an increase from 2% the previous week, though it still trails the expected 16%. In Ireland, all 2024/2025 winter barley and rye crops have been drilled, shifting focus to winter wheat planting. Some delays have arisen due to the late harvesting of spring bean crops, which are critical in Irish tillage rotation systems.
As these developments continue to unfold, global wheat markets are closely monitoring weather patterns and their potential effects on supply and pricing.
