The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) recorded a 0.27% increase for the week ending June 19, 2025, as rising costs of essential food items and fuel pushed prices upward, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
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Key Price Movements
Notable Increases:
- Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): +14.86%
- Potatoes: +3.75%
- Diesel: +3.10%
- Gur (jaggery): +2.25%
- Chicken: +2.17%
- Sugar: +2.13%
- Petrol: +1.88%
- Mustard oil: +1.12%
- Powdered milk: +0.97%
Significant Declines:
- Eggs: -9.53%
- Tomatoes: -5.62%
- Garlic: -1.03%
- Pulse gram: -0.35%
Out of 51 monitored items, prices rose for 23, fell for eight, and remained stable for 20.
Yearly Inflation Trends
On an annual basis, the SPI fell by 2.06%, with major price drops in:
- Onions: -63.22%
- Tomatoes: -56.11%
- Electricity charges (Q1): -41.63%
- Garlic: -32.58%
However, some items saw sharp yearly increases:
- Ladies’ sandals: +55.62%
- Pulse moong: +28.90%
- Sugar: +26.19%
- LPG: +21.77%
Market Outlook & Inflation Forecast
Analysts note that the SPI has been fluctuating due to fuel price adjustments and shifting demand. After a dip in early May, inflationary pressures have resurfaced in food and energy sectors.
The State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expects inflation to stabilize within the target range by FY26. Meanwhile, JS Global Research predicts June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3.1% year-on-year, with food inflation rising to 2.8% (up from 0.97% last year).
Core inflation (excluding food and energy) is projected at 8.5% YoY, with urban inflation at 7.3% and rural at 8.8% as of May.
Market experts warn of potential volatility ahead, depending on global commodity trends and local supply conditions.
