Summer 2024 has been officially declared the hottest on record, increasing the likelihood that this year will end as the warmest ever recorded, according to the European climate service, Copernicus. The intense heat follows a similar pattern from last year, as human-driven climate change, exacerbated by the temporary effects of El Niño, continues to push global temperatures higher, scientists explain.
From June to August, the average global temperature reached 16.8 degrees Celsius (62.24 degrees Fahrenheit), surpassing the previous 2023 record by 0.03 degrees Celsius (0.05 degrees Fahrenheit), according to Copernicus data, which dates back to 1940. However, American, British, and Japanese climate records, going back to the mid-19th century, show the last decade as the hottest since regular measurements began. Some experts even suggest these temperatures may be the highest in 120,000 years.
August 2024 tied with August 2023 as the hottest on record, both averaging 16.82 degrees Celsius (62.27 degrees Fahrenheit). While July 2024 narrowly missed setting a new monthly record, June 2024 was so significantly hotter that it pushed the entire summer to the top of the charts, noted Carlo Buontempo, Director of Copernicus.
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“These seemingly modest increases reflect how the climate crisis is tightening its grip on us,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research. This summer’s high temperatures, combined with near-record levels of humidity, have intensified the sweltering conditions for much of the world, Buontempo added.
Initially, Buontempo and other climate experts were uncertain whether 2024 would surpass 2023 as the hottest year. However, after August 2024 matched last year’s extreme heat, Buontempo is now “pretty certain” that 2024 will break the annual heat record. He emphasized that only significant cooling in the final months of the year could prevent it, which appears unlikely.
Despite a predicted La Niña event—a temporary natural cooling in the Pacific—the remaining months of 2024 are expected to remain warm, though perhaps not record-setting like earlier this year. Nonetheless, Buontempo believes that La Niña’s cooling effect won’t be enough to stop 2024 from becoming the hottest year on record.
The rising global temperatures are not just figures on paper; they have real consequences, scientists warn. “This means more suffering across the world,” said Jonathan Overpeck, a climate expert from the University of Michigan. Cities like Phoenix, Arizona, which has already experienced over 100 days of temperatures exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8 degrees Celsius), are becoming unbearably hot for extended periods. Meanwhile, other regions are grappling with extreme weather, from severe droughts to flooding.
In India, for example, a period of intense heat was followed by torrential rains, leading to floods and landslides. The compounding effects of climate change are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore, as it becomes more costly and destructive.
Jennifer Francis, a climate researcher at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, pointed out the overwhelming surge of extreme weather events—heatwaves, floods, wildfires, and violent storms. “It’s like living in a war zone, where the constant bombardment of extreme weather is numbing our senses to what should be alarms,” she said.
While part of last year’s heat surge was driven by El Niño, this year’s record heat without the phenomenon underscores the larger, long-term impact of human-caused climate change, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels, Buontempo concluded.
