The federal government is likely to increase petrol prices by Rs4.75 per litre in the upcoming fortnightly fuel price review, according to internal estimates prepared by the oil industry. The expected revision comes amid rising international oil prices, while high-speed diesel prices are projected to remain almost unchanged if no additional petroleum levy is imposed before the official announcement.
Industry calculations suggest that petrol prices could rise from Rs270.03 per litre to Rs274.77 per litre during the next pricing cycle. Officials said the increase is mainly linked to a rise in international Free on Board (FOB) gasoline prices, which climbed from $139.03 per barrel to $143.01 per barrel during the review period.
Although there was a slight reduction in premiums and incidental costs, experts noted that the relief was too small to offset the overall increase in global petrol prices. In addition, the removal of a previous Pakistan State Oil adjustment of Rs1.41 per litre also contributed to the projected rise in consumer rates.
In contrast, high-speed diesel is expected to witness only a marginal increase of around Rs0.20 per litre. Current estimates show diesel prices may move from Rs334.74 per litre to Rs334.93 per litre. Despite a sharp rise in international diesel FOB prices from $160.41 per barrel to $172.99 per barrel, several policy adjustments helped reduce the impact on local consumers.
Industry officials stated that a major reduction in customs duty and incidental costs played a key role in stabilising diesel prices. Calculations show customs duty alone declined by more than Rs20 per litre, largely neutralising the effect of higher international diesel rates during the review period.
The exchange rate also remained relatively stable at around Rs278.9 against the US dollar, limiting additional pressure on domestic fuel prices. Final consumer rates, however, will depend on the government’s decisions regarding petroleum levy, taxes, and any last-minute exchange rate adjustments before the official notification is issued.
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