Pakistan’s ambitious export goals under the Uraan Pakistan initiative are facing skepticism. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued forecasts that suggest slower growth than government targets.
Under Uraan Pakistan, the government aims to increase exports by $60 billion over the next five years. However, the IMF projects that Pakistan’s exports will grow by only $13.79 billion in the next four years. This highlights a significant gap between policy goals and realistic expectations.
The IMF expects Pakistan’s total exports to reach $36.46 billion in the next fiscal year. Exports are forecasted to rise gradually to $40 billion in 2027–28, $43 billion in 2028–29, and $46 billion by 2029–30. These figures are well below the government’s stated ambitions.
At the same time, Pakistan’s imports are expected to increase faster than exports. The IMF projects imports at $64 billion in the current fiscal year, rising to $66.86 billion in 2027, $72.90 billion in 2028, $77 billion in 2029, and $82.81 billion by 2030. The growing gap between imports and exports raises concerns about the country’s trade balance.
Economists warn that without faster export growth, Pakistan may face continued pressure on its foreign exchange reserves and current account. Rising imports could worsen the trade deficit, creating additional economic challenges.
Analysts also point out that achieving Uraan Pakistan targets will require structural reforms. Diversifying export sectors, improving production capacity, and ensuring sustained global demand are key factors not fully considered in IMF projections.
The contrast between Pakistan’s ambitious goals and IMF’s cautious outlook has sparked debate. Experts emphasize that realistic planning, policy support, and investment in key sectors are crucial to achieving sustainable export growth.
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Pakistan’s success will depend on bridging the gap between optimistic targets and practical economic conditions. Strategic reforms and focused export promotion will be essential for long-term trade stability.
