Pakistan’s inflation is projected to hit an 11-month high in September, with CPI expected to rise 6.5%–7% year-on-year, compared to 3% in August and 6.93% in September 2024, according to Topline Securities.
Analyst Myesha Sohail noted this would be the highest reading since October 2024, with a sharp 3.1% month-on-month jump — the steepest in over two years — mainly driven by food shortages from floods.
Food prices are set for a record 8.75% monthly increase, led by tomatoes (+122%), wheat (+49%), wheat flour (+39%), and onions (+35%). Potatoes (+5.4%), rice (+4.3%), chicken (+4.1%), eggs (+3.5%), and sugar (+2.7%) also surged, while fruit prices stayed flat and overall vegetables fell 10%.
Housing, utilities, and gas costs dipped 0.24% on lower electricity charges, reflecting tariff and fuel adjustments, though partially offset by a 2.75% rise in LPG. Transport prices dropped 1.25%, with diesel down 5.3% while petrol remained unchanged.
At 6.5–7% inflation, real interest rates would stand 400–450 basis points, well above Pakistan’s historical average of 200–300 bps.
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