Inflation in Pakistan is projected to slow down and settle between 3.75% and 4.25% in August 2025. This forecast comes from Topline Securities, a private economic think tank.
The monthly rise in inflation is expected to be modest, at about 0.3%. This shows signs of stability compared to the double-digit inflation seen last year.
In July 2025, inflation stood at 4.07%, significantly lower than 9.63% recorded in August 2024. Experts believe inflation will continue to ease in the coming months.
Topline Securities expects the annual inflation rate to finish the current financial year between 6% and 7%. This outlook aligns with the State Bank of Pakistan’s forecast of 5% to 7%.
With inflation showing signs of easing, the central bank may have room to reduce the policy interest rate. The report suggests that interest rates could drop by 50 to 100 basis points soon. By December 2025, the rate might fall to around 10%, lowering borrowing costs for businesses and households.
The report also highlights changes in essential commodity prices. Transport costs, diesel, tomatoes, onions, and eggs are likely to become more expensive. On the other hand, prices for fresh fruits, sugar, and chicken may decrease, providing some relief to consumers.
Recent data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics shows weekly inflation rising by 0.31%, while annual inflation in essential items reached 2.21%. Several commodities, including tomatoes, live broiler chicken, eggs, and flour, have seen price increases.
In contrast, prices of bananas, potatoes, rice, and LPG cylinders have fallen. These mixed trends indicate a slowly stabilizing inflation situation in Pakistan.
Officials continue to monitor inflation closely. They aim to keep price rises under control and support economic stability.
In other related news also read Pakistan’s Short-Term Inflation Records Just Under 4%
