Global arabica coffee prices soared to record highs above $3.60 per pound on Wednesday, driven by dwindling supplies in Brazil, the world’s largest producer, and concerns over its upcoming harvest.
Dealers report that 70%-80% of Brazil’s current arabica harvest has already been sold, with new trades slowing down. Brazil accounts for nearly half of the world’s arabica production, a premium variety widely used in roast and ground coffee blends.
While weather conditions in Brazil have improved after last year’s severe drought, the country’s upcoming arabica crop is projected to be 4.4% smaller than the previous season, according to Brazilian food supply agency Conab.
“Global coffee supplies remain tight,” noted broker HedgePoint Global Markets. “Vietnam is making slow progress in selling its robusta crop, arabica from Central America and Colombia is taking longer to reach the market, and Brazilian farmers are reluctant to sell more.”
Arabica coffee futures on the ICE exchange, the global benchmark for coffee pricing, hit a record high of $3.6945 per pound earlier in the session, marking a nearly 15% gain for the year. The contract later closed up 2.5% at $3.6655 per pound.
Read More: Is Coffee Beneficial for Heart Health?
Robusta coffee, a lower-cost variety primarily used for instant coffee, also saw gains, rising 0.9% to $5,609 per metric ton.
India, the world’s fifth-largest robusta producer, is expected to see coffee exports decline by more than 10% in 2025 due to lower production and reduced carry-forward stocks. Farmers in India and Vietnam—the top robusta producer—are reportedly holding back sales, anticipating further price increases.
Broker Sucden highlighted that Brazilian farmers are prioritizing domestic sales over dollar-priced exports, despite higher profits from international sales. This is largely due to improved financial conditions over the past two years.
The country’s buffer stocks have now fallen to an estimated 500,000 bags—far below the traditional 8 million bags—making global coffee markets increasingly vulnerable to any weather disruptions. Sucden forecasts a fourth consecutive coffee supply deficit this season.
In other soft commodities, raw sugar rose 1.1% to 19.45 cents per pound, bouncing back from a five-month low, while white sugar gained 2.2% to $522.90 per ton.
New York cocoa futures climbed 3.3% to $11,745 per ton, with London cocoa increasing 1.6% to £9,138 per ton.
