Astronomers Track Asteroid 2024 YR4: Small Chance of Earth Impact in 2032
Astronomers worldwide are closely monitoring Asteroid 2024 YR4, which has a 2% chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032.
While the probability remains low, the asteroid’s size and trajectory were significant enough to trigger an international warning system for planetary defense.
Key Facts About Asteroid 2024 YR4
- Size: Estimated between 40 and 90 meters wide, large enough to cause localized damage.
- Speed: If it were to impact, it would strike at 38,000 miles per hour.
- Current Distance: As of January 31, 2025, it is 30 million miles from Earth.
- Discovery: First spotted on January 27, 2025, after passing near Earth on Christmas.
- Next Observation Window: The asteroid will fade from view in April 2025 and become observable again in mid-2028.
What If It Hits?
Experts emphasize that Asteroid 2024 YR4 is not an extinction-level threat, but an impact could still cause significant destruction, especially in populated areas.
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Potential Impact Zones
- Eastern Pacific Ocean
- South America
- Atlantic Ocean
- Africa
- Arabian Sea
- South Asia
However, astronomers believe it is far more likely to impact an ocean than a city, reducing the risk of widespread devastation.
What’s Next?
NASA and ESA’s planetary defense teams are actively tracking the asteroid using advanced telescopes, including the James Webb Space Telescope.
Scientists expect that as they refine the asteroid’s trajectory, the impact probability will likely drop to zero.
Can We Deflect It?
NASA has already demonstrated that asteroid deflection is possible. In 2022, the DART mission successfully altered an asteroid’s path using a kinetic impactor technique, proving that a similar method could be used if necessary.
For now, experts urge the public to stay informed but not alarmed. With advancements in detection technology, early warnings about near-Earth asteroids will become increasingly common.
