NASA scientists have revised their projections for asteroid 2024 YR4, once feared to be on a collision course with Earth, and now suggest that it may instead crash into the Moon. Initially, the asteroid posed a 3% chance of hitting Earth in December 2032, with potentially catastrophic consequences for areas up to 80 kilometers from the impact site. However, further tracking and analysis have significantly reduced the threat of an Earth impact, bringing the likelihood down to nearly zero.
New data from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope has revealed a nearly 4% chance that the asteroid could strike the Moon instead. While the probability remains low, scientists are continuing to monitor the situation. According to lead author Andy Rivkin from Johns Hopkins University, the possibility of a 2032 Moon impact has not been ruled out. The next close tracking opportunity is expected in early 2026.
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The asteroid’s size has also been updated to between 53 and 67 meters, roughly equivalent to a 15-story building, highlighting the potential scale of a lunar impact. While the focus remains on preventing Earth impacts, NASA is using the opportunity to refine planetary defense strategies, with the possibility of a Moon impact offering valuable scientific data.
With new asteroid-tracking technologies coming online, NASA anticipates that more potential impactors will be identified, enhancing our preparedness for future asteroid threats.
