The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that global oil and gas demand could continue to grow until 2050. This contradicts earlier expectations of a quick transition to cleaner energy. The IEA shared its findings in the World Energy Outlook 2025 on Wednesday.
According to the report, global oil demand may reach 113 million barrels per day by 2050, up around 13% from 2024 levels. Energy demand overall is expected to grow by 90 exajoules by 2035, a 15% increase from current consumption.
The scenario is based on current government policies, not climate ambitions. It reflects the differing energy choices governments are making worldwide. IEA head Fatih Birol said the forecast highlights that fossil fuels will remain important despite clean energy efforts.
The report also notes a surge in liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity. By 2030, about 300 billion cubic meters of new LNG exports are expected, marking a 50% increase in supply. Rising demand is driven by the power sector, data centers, and AI technologies. Global investment in data centers is projected at $580 billion in 2025, exceeding annual oil supply investment.
Despite the growth in global oil and gas demand, the IEA warns the world is likely to miss the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C. Greenpeace Nordic senior adviser Kaisa Kosonen urged governments to act faster and scale up climate efforts ahead of COP30.
The report highlights that while some, including OPEC, dispute the idea of peak oil demand, the IEA’s scenarios are not predictions but projections based on existing policies.
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Overall, the outlook suggests fossil fuels will remain a major part of the energy mix, even as countries increase investments in clean energy. The IEA emphasizes urgent action is needed to bridge the climate ambition gap while managing global energy demand.
