President Donald Trump seems more focused on reclaiming US-made weapons currently held by the Taliban than on addressing the fact that these arms were left behind during the withdrawal. His recent announcement to retrieve the equipment comes off as empty rhetoric. While a comprehensive investigation into the flawed US withdrawal might assign blame, it is unlikely to recover what has already been lost.
The US pullout created a new security dilemma that Washington appears unprepared to tackle. Now, Trump intends to link future military aid to the return of US equipment. However, this bold strategy is doubtful to succeed, especially since regional powers like China and Russia are poised to take advantage of the vacuum for their own strategic gains.
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Over the past few days, Trump has repeatedly expressed his anger over the sophisticated weaponry now in the hands of the Afghan Taliban. He has also publicly mentioned plans to regain control of the 30-square-mile Bagram Airfield, although his objectives remain vague and lack a clear roadmap.
Historically, no invading power has successfully recaptured abandoned or seized military assets without re-entering the conflict zone. The Taliban are unlikely to willingly surrender these resources; even if the US were to buy back some equipment, doing so would only undermine the Taliban’s military strength. In fact, a significant portion of the quarter-million rifles and 70,000 armored trucks has already been sold off for dollars, and the Taliban have made no secret of this transaction.
For regional stability, especially in Pakistan, there is major concern over these weapons proliferating beyond Afghanistan’s borders. Any potential treaty between the US and the Taliban must include provisions that prevent the Afghan forces from using these arms against neighboring countries, whether directly or through groups like the TTP and other militant organizations.
Given that Afghanistan is now governed by a consolidated Taliban regime—not a fragmented post-conflict Iraq—it appears highly unlikely that the Taliban would return the equipment. Trump will need to devise an unconventional strategy to engage with the Taliban, ensuring that any agreement is more than just symbolic, where only low-value items are returned as a gesture.
Simultaneously, the US must work with regional powers to monitor and limit the arms trade to mitigate the broader consequences of its withdrawal. Successfully pulling off such measures would be unprecedented in modern history, but failure could spark new insurgencies and further destabilize the region.
