The United States could lose up to 110,000 international students during the 2026-27 academic year as visa delays, travel restrictions and growing uncertainty over immigration policies discourage students from choosing American universities.
A new analysis by NAFSA: Association of International Educators, Studyportals and JB International projects that international student enrollment in the United States could decline by 9.5% in fall 2026.
The projected decline is based on responses from educational institutions included in the Institute of International Education’s Spring 2026 Snapshot on International Educational Exchange.
The potential drop would not only affect universities but could also have a significant economic impact on the United States. According to the analysis, a decline of this scale could result in as much as $3.4 billion in lost spending and put approximately 39,000 jobs at risk.
International Enrollment Under Pressure
Nearly two-thirds of institutions surveyed by the Institute of International Education expect international enrollment to decline during the 2026-27 academic year.
The figures suggest that uncertainty surrounding the US higher education system is already affecting students’ plans before the new academic year begins.
International students have traditionally played an important role in American universities, contributing tuition revenue, supporting local economies and strengthening academic and cultural connections between the US and other countries.
However, the latest projections indicate that concerns over immigration policies and difficulties obtaining student visas are increasingly influencing prospective students.
The potential decline could be particularly significant for universities that depend heavily on international enrollment and for communities where international students contribute substantially to local businesses and services.
Doctoral Applications Also Decline
The analysis found that demand among international doctoral candidates has weakened considerably.
The international pool of doctoral candidates for the 2026-27 academic year has fallen by 21%, while international PhD admissions have declined by 17%.
Applications submitted by international students through the Common Application have also decreased by 9% for the upcoming academic year.
The figures indicate that the uncertainty is affecting students at multiple levels, from undergraduate applicants to those pursuing advanced research degrees.
Doctoral students can spend several years in the United States, meaning uncertainty over immigration status and future employment opportunities may be especially important when they decide where to study.
Visa Delays Add to Concerns
Visa processing difficulties are another major factor contributing to the decline.
An expanded US travel ban covering citizens of 39 countries has been in effect since January 1, 2026, creating additional challenges for students from affected countries.
While student visa processing itself has not been suspended, the US State Department prioritized visa applications from FIFA World Cup ticket holders during the spring and summer period.
That period has traditionally been important for international students applying for visas ahead of the academic year.
The change in prioritization has added pressure to an already busy visa system, with students facing longer processing times and limited interview availability.
Significant delays have reportedly been observed in major student markets, including India, China and parts of Europe.
For students who must receive their visas before travelling to the United States, delays can create uncertainty over whether they will arrive in time for classes.
Immigration Policy Creates Further Uncertainty
Changes to US immigration rules are also influencing student decisions.
The longstanding Duration of Status system is being replaced with a fixed Admit-Until-Date, or AUD, system.
Under the new approach, international students who need additional time to complete their studies could be required to apply for an extension with US immigration authorities.
Education organizations have raised concerns that the change could create additional uncertainty, particularly for students enrolled in longer degree programs.
Students pursuing doctoral degrees, medical programs and other extended courses could face greater concerns because completing their studies may require more time than initially expected.
The uncertainty could make universities in other countries more attractive to prospective international students.
Concerns Over OPT
Potential changes to the Optional Practical Training program are also contributing to uncertainty.
OPT allows eligible international graduates to gain practical work experience in the United States after completing their studies.
For many international students, the opportunity to gain professional experience in the US is an important factor when deciding where to pursue higher education.
Concerns over possible changes to the program could therefore affect the attractiveness of American universities, particularly among students who view post-graduation employment opportunities as part of their long-term education plans.
Economic Impact Could Be Significant
A reduction of up to 110,000 international students could have consequences beyond university campuses.
International students contribute billions of dollars to the US economy through tuition payments, housing, transportation, food, retail spending and other expenses.
According to the latest analysis, the projected decline could reduce spending by as much as $3.4 billion and affect approximately 39,000 jobs.
The figures highlight the broader economic importance of international education to the United States.
Universities, policymakers and education organizations are now facing growing pressure to address concerns surrounding visa processing, immigration rules and the overall experience of international students.
If the projected decline materializes, the US could face stronger competition from other major international education destinations that are seeking to attract students from around the world.
The 2026-27 academic year will therefore be closely watched as universities assess whether current immigration and visa-related challenges result in a sustained decline in international enrollment.
Also read: US Scholarships for International Students Closing January 2026
