New tuberculosis vaccines expected to become available from 2029 could prevent more than 7.3 million deaths over two decades, according to a new analysis by Gavi, the global vaccine alliance.
The findings highlight the potential impact of next-generation TB vaccines, particularly in countries where tuberculosis continues to place a heavy burden on public health systems.
However, Gavi has warned that the potential benefits of the vaccines will depend heavily on whether manufacturers and donors can ensure sufficient, affordable and predictable supplies for countries with the highest levels of TB transmission.
New Vaccines Could Transform TB Prevention
Gavi chief Sania Nishtar described the upcoming vaccines as potentially becoming the “next blockbuster immunisation tool” if adequate supplies can be made available to countries that need them most.
The alliance’s analysis estimates that the first new TB vaccine candidates could prevent up to 7.3 million deaths between 2030 and 2050.
The projected benefits could be particularly significant for low- and middle-income countries, where tuberculosis continues to affect large numbers of people and healthcare resources can be limited.
The vaccines are being developed with a focus on adolescents and adults, a group for which current TB vaccination options provide limited long-term protection.
Tuberculosis Remains a Major Global Threat
Tuberculosis remains the world’s deadliest infectious disease, according to the information cited by Gavi.
The World Health Organization estimated that TB caused 1.23 million deaths in 2024, underlining the continued global impact of the disease.
Although tuberculosis is preventable and treatable, millions of people continue to develop the disease each year.
The persistence of TB has increased the need for improved prevention tools, particularly vaccines that can provide stronger and longer-lasting protection beyond early childhood.
BCG Vaccine Is More Than a Century Old
The only licensed TB vaccine currently in use is the Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine, which has been used for more than a century.
BCG remains an important tool for protecting infants and young children against severe forms of tuberculosis.
However, its protective effect weakens over time, leaving adolescents and adults with less protection against TB.
This limitation is one of the reasons researchers and global health organisations have placed significant emphasis on developing new vaccines that can provide protection later in life.
New candidates designed for adolescents and adults could potentially address this gap and strengthen global efforts to control tuberculosis.
Vaccines Could Bring Major Economic Benefits
The potential benefits of the new vaccines could extend beyond preventing deaths.
Gavi’s analysis estimates that successful deployment could generate as much as $135 billion in economic benefits across low- and middle-income countries by 2050.
Reducing TB infections and deaths could help reduce healthcare costs while also limiting the economic disruption caused when people become seriously ill.
A decline in tuberculosis could also allow affected individuals to remain in education and employment, potentially contributing to wider economic productivity.
Funding Could Determine Vaccine Rollout
Despite the promising projections, Gavi has warned that the successful development and approval of vaccines alone will not guarantee widespread access.
The alliance identified financing gaps, uncertain demand and weak investment as potential challenges that could slow the rollout of new TB vaccines after approval.
Manufacturers need confidence that there will be sufficient demand, while countries with high TB burdens need vaccines to be available at affordable prices.
Without predictable financing and adequate production capacity, countries most affected by tuberculosis could struggle to gain timely access to the new vaccines.
Gavi Preparing for Wider Access
Gavi said it is already working with partners to prepare for the potential introduction of the new vaccines.
The goal is to ensure that countries can gain timely access and achieve wider vaccine uptake once candidates receive regulatory approval and are licensed.
Advance planning could help governments and health organisations prepare financing mechanisms, vaccination programmes and supply systems before the vaccines become available.
The alliance’s efforts also reflect the importance of ensuring that new medical technologies reach populations with the greatest need rather than remaining limited by supply or financial constraints.
Global TB Fight Could Enter a New Phase
If the projected vaccines become available and are successfully introduced at scale, they could represent an important development in the global fight against tuberculosis.
The possibility of preventing millions of deaths between 2030 and 2050 offers significant hope for countries that continue to face high TB burdens.
However, the success of the vaccines will depend not only on scientific development and regulatory approval but also on manufacturing capacity, funding and international cooperation.
For now, Gavi and its partners are working to prepare for wider access, while researchers continue advancing vaccine candidates for adolescents and adults.
The projected 7.3 million lives saved and $135 billion in economic benefits demonstrate the potential scale of the opportunity if the vaccines reach the people who need them most.
