vernment uses information from provincial Crop Reporting Services, SUPARCO, the Land Information and Management System and international agricultural organisations. However, national planning mainly relies on provincial crop reporting data. Agriculture development professional Khalid Saeed Watto has argued that changes in farm sizes, agricultural inputs and mechanisation have reduced the accuracy of traditional crop reporting methods.
Wheat Demand Estimates Also Need Review
Questions have also emerged about how the government calculates wheat demand. A publicly reported government assessment estimated total demand until April 2027 at 34.33 million tons. This included 30.83 million tons for human consumption, 1.5 million tons for feed and seed, and two million tons for strategic reserves.
The human consumption estimate was based on a population of 268 million and average annual consumption of 115 kilograms per person. However, figures from the latest Household Integrated Economic Survey indicate that annual household wheat consumption has declined in both rural and urban areas.
According to the survey, per capita household wheat consumption fell from 84 kilograms in 2018-19 to 79 kilograms in 2024-25, a reduction of 5.57 percent. These figures do not cover all commercial and industrial uses of wheat, but they raise questions about whether the government’s long-standing consumption benchmark needs updating.
More accurate demand estimates could help officials calculate how much wheat Pakistan needs and reduce the risk of unnecessary imports or unexpected shortages.
The 2023-24 Wheat Import Controversy
Pakistan’s current wheat policy problems can partly be traced to the 2023-24 import controversy. During that period, around 3.59 million tons of wheat were imported under the caretaker government. The Auditor General of Pakistan criticised the stock and demand data used for these decisions and highlighted concerns about delays in public procurement.
The imports were followed by a larger-than-expected domestic harvest, leaving the market with excessive supplies. Farmers then faced another setback when large-scale procurement was reduced in Punjab in 2024.
The government had announced a support price of Rs. 3,900 per maund, but many farmers reportedly had to sell their wheat for around Rs. 3,000 per maund or less. This caused financial losses for farmers who had invested in seeds, fertilisers, fuel, labour and other farming expenses.
The controversy led to inquiries and administrative changes. However, concerns remain about whether the underlying weaknesses in wheat planning and stock management have been properly addressed.
Deregulation Has Created New Challenges
After the procurement crisis, the government moved towards a more market-based wheat system. Public procurement had become financially burdensome, with liabilities described as exceeding Rs. 680 billion. However, the shift towards deregulation raised new questions because major changes were introduced without fully resolving the problems in production estimates and stock management.
The government introduced Electronic Warehouse Receipts to help farmers store wheat in approved warehouses for up to four months and use electronic receipts to secure bank loans. The idea was to reduce pressure on farmers to sell immediately after harvesting.
However, the scheme reportedly faced delays and infrastructure problems. The wider policy shift also created uncertainty over private wheat storage and crop movement, with reports of enforcement action against private stocks and farmers. Such uncertainty can discourage investment by businesses expected to play a greater role in the wheat market.
Punjab later attempted to build strategic reserves of around three million tons through indirect procurement. Eleven companies were selected, with support including bank-financing assistance, a 70 percent subsidy on financing mark-up and access to government storage facilities.
However, the plan struggled as financing negotiations between banks and most selected companies faced difficulties.
Climate Change and Market Uncertainty
Changes in harvesting patterns have added another challenge. Mechanisation has shortened the harvesting period, allowing large quantities of wheat to reach markets at nearly the same time. This sudden supply can push prices down, even when total national production has not increased significantly.
Market reports also indicated that yields in several districts were lower than the previous year. As concerns about supply increased, wheat prices rose in parts of Punjab. These developments highlighted the need to distinguish between a temporary increase in market supply and the country’s total production.
The government’s indirect procurement plan also used a benchmark price of Rs. 3,500 per maund. However, uncertainty over prices and financing terms raised questions about whether participating companies would have enough incentive to purchase wheat when market conditions changed.
Climate-related losses, changing weather patterns and unpredictable prices make it harder for farmers to plan their next crop. Without reliable data and a clear policy, both producers and consumers can face serious financial risks.
Farmers Continue to Bear the Cost
Wheat is a strategic crop in Pakistan because shortages can increase flour prices and create political pressure. Governments therefore have strong reasons to avoid supply problems. Importing wheat can appear to be a safer option than risking a shortage that affects millions of consumers.
However, imports made on the basis of unreliable data can create excess supply and force farmers to sell their crops at lower prices. This leaves growers carrying the cost of decisions they had little role in making.
As farmers prepare to sow the next wheat crop, uncertainty over procurement, prices and government policy could also affect their willingness to invest. If growers expect weak prices at harvest time, they may reduce spending on inputs, potentially affecting future yields.
What Needs to Change?
Pakistan needs a more reliable system for estimating wheat production. The government should combine satellite data, provincial crop surveys and other available methods. Major differences between estimates should be investigated before import decisions are made.
Officials should also publish regular wheat balance sheets showing production, imports, consumption, stocks and expected demand. These figures should be updated as new information becomes available instead of relying on outdated assumptions.
Demand estimates should reflect changes in household consumption and account for commercial and industrial use. The government should also expand affordable crop insurance to help farmers manage climate-related losses and sudden price declines.
Electronic Warehouse Receipts could provide useful financial support, but the system needs adequate storage facilities, accessible bank financing and timely implementation. Any move towards a freer wheat market should also include clear rules that protect farmers from unnecessary restrictions and unpredictable policy changes.
Pakistan’s wheat problem is not simply about whether the country produces enough grain. It is also about whether officials can accurately measure production, understand demand and manage reserves. Until these systems improve, the country risks repeating the same cycle of imports, excess supply, falling farm prices and renewed concerns over shortages.
Also read: Govt Moves to Import 750,000 Tonnes of Wheat
