Tensions between Israel and Turkey are rising over military activity in Syria, raising fears that a dispute between two powerful regional actors could escalate further.
The latest escalation came after Israel reportedly struck Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase near Aleppo. The facility is located around 45 to 60 kilometres from the Turkish border.
Israel said the strikes were aimed at preventing what it viewed as a potentially threatening Turkish military buildup inside Syria. Turkey and Syria have rejected the claim and denied plans for a permanent Turkish military base.
The dispute has raised concerns in Washington. US officials are reportedly working to prevent the situation from developing into a direct confrontation between Israel and Turkey.
Former US Navy intelligence officer Malcolm Nance warned that Turkey should not be viewed like the non-state groups Israel has fought in recent years. He pointed to Turkey’s large conventional military and its position as a NATO member.
Turkey has one of NATO’s largest militaries and has developed significant domestic defence capabilities. Its military includes drones, missiles, air defence systems and naval platforms.
The country has also demonstrated its ability to conduct military operations beyond its borders. Turkish forces have operated in Syria and have also projected power in Libya and the South Caucasus.
The immediate dispute centres on Israel’s concerns about Turkey’s possible military presence in Syria. Israeli officials reportedly believe such a deployment could alter the existing security situation and limit Israel’s ability to operate freely in Syrian airspace.
Israeli officials have claimed that warnings were delivered before the strikes. Reports said communications took place between Israeli and Syrian officials before Israel launched the military operation.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz also warned Turkish President Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan against what he described as dangerous actions in Syria. Israeli strikes reportedly targeted runways and storage facilities.
Turkey has strongly rejected Israel’s justification for the strikes. Ankara condemned the attacks as violations of Syrian sovereignty and denied preparing the military deployment described by Israel.
The conflicting claims have increased the risk of further escalation. If Israel continues targeting facilities it believes are connected to Turkish military activity, Ankara could face growing pressure to respond.
At the same time, any major expansion of Turkey’s military presence in Syria could reinforce Israeli concerns and potentially create a cycle of military escalation.
The United States is now attempting to prevent such a scenario. US Ambassador to Turkey and Syria envoy Tom Barrack reportedly described the Israeli action as an unnecessary escalation.
Washington is working toward a three-way deconfliction mechanism involving Israel, Turkey and Syria. The aim is to prevent military forces from accidentally coming into direct confrontation.
Turkey’s military strength is another major factor in the crisis. Its armed forces have NATO-trained personnel and increasingly sophisticated defence systems. Its growing drone industry has also become an important part of its military capabilities.
Turkey’s NATO membership could further complicate any direct confrontation with Israel. However, NATO’s Article 5 does not automatically mean that every conflict involving a member state would trigger a collective military response.
The circumstances of any confrontation would determine how NATO allies respond. A conflict involving Turkish forces operating in Syria could create particularly complicated legal and political questions for the alliance.
Israel and Turkey were once close strategic partners. Military and intelligence cooperation expanded significantly during the 1990s and 2000s. Turkey was also the first Muslim-majority country to recognize Israel.
Relations have deteriorated sharply in recent years. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has become one of Israel’s strongest critics, particularly since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack and the subsequent Gaza war.
Turkey has maintained relations with Hamas and repeatedly condemned Israeli military operations in Gaza. The latest dispute over Syria now adds another serious challenge to already strained Israeli-Turkish relations.
The coming weeks could therefore prove important. Any further Israeli strikes or Turkish military deployments in Syria could increase the risk of a direct confrontation and force the United States to intensify diplomatic efforts.
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